A wager on an event that won’t happen until the distant future is called a “future bet”. Which team will win the Super Bowl, Stanley Cup, World Series, National Title etc, are great examples of this, while which team wins the division, who will win the Cy Young, and which NFL head coach will be fired next are other examples. In this article, I’ll cover some tips and strategies for betting futures using NFL for the examples.

Line Shopping is Critical in Sports Betting

The first thing you need to understand about future betting is that the odds vary greatly from site to site. To illustrate this, here is a snapshot of the odds from November 25, 2010 on three different teams winning the Super Bowl:

• What is a Futures Bet in Sports Betting? A future bet, as it sounds, is a bet on an event that will be decided in the future (beyond just the current day or week). Generally, such a bet comes on an end-of-season result.
• Sep 18, 2019 Sports Futures Calculator Introduction. To use this calculator, enter the the odds each event pays. Leave unneeded fields blank. Odds should be entered on a 'to one' basis or American odds. If American odds are being used (like +300 or -500), check the American odds box. Then click 'calculate.'

You can make futures bets on any of the major sports championships such as the Super Bowl, World Series, Stanley Cup final, March Madness, College Football Playoff and the NBA Finals. And as soon as one season is over, there are usually future odds posted for next season’s championship.

• Redskins: 100/1 at Sportsbook| 125/1 at Bovada | 350/1 at 5Dimes
• Packers: 7/1 at 5Dimes | 7/1 at Bovada | 10/1 at Sportsbook
• Bears: 20/1 at Sportsbook, 28/1 at 5Dimes | 30/1 at Bovada

Notice that to get the best odds on each of these teams, we’ll need to use three different sites. This isn’t a cherry picked example; this is a regular occurrence and the reason why it is important to line shop using multiple betting sites when betting futures.

Future Betting is a Recreational Bettors Market

Most future bets are made by sports fans interested in backing their favorite team or player over the course of the season. Professional players avoid this wagering option due to the massive juice built into lines. Now don’t confuse the motive here; many Bookmakers would love nothing more than to compete on futures. The challenge is that with 32 different options on which team will win the Super Bowl, it is near impossible for the bookmaker to balance action. Any Cinderella run by preseason underdogs is enough to give a bookmaker an ulcer, and one of these teams winning the championship is enough to put a major dent, if not wipe out, most of the season’s profits. While these runs are rare, and bookmakers do profit well on futures, they still need to protect themselves. Las Vegas bookmakers add 40-70% juice to their future markets to protect themselves.

While juice is still high at many betting sites, a handful of betting sites now operate on risky margins. This is a new concept, and only recently has the opportunity arrived that future betting actually can be +EV. The leading site by far for Super Bowl and other championship markets is 5Dimes.eu. 5Dimes operates with around half the margin of their closest competitors with a theoretical hold around 11%. Their closest competitors are www.Bovada.lv, with a 21% hold, and TheGreek.com, similar. A few other sites that don’t compete well as far as juice, but are great for line shopping futures is Intertops. A recent study on getting the best Super Bowl winner odds with limited line shopping showed the following combinations as the most profitable:

• One Site Only: 5Dimes alone gives bettors 74% chance of getting best future odds.
• Two Site Combo: 5Dimes + Sportsbook, 91% chance of finding best odds.
• Three Site Combo: 5Dimes + Sportsbook + Bovada, 93.7% chance.

Sign up at 5Dimes.eu and www.Bovada.lv

Doing our own research using only Super Bowl future odds on November 25, 2010, we shopped all 31 teams who still have a chance at winning the Super Bowl at four sites: 5Dimes, Sportsbook, Bovada and TheGreek. We took the best odds on each team, put them into a spread sheet and did some calculations. How it turned out when using those four sites combined is that a sports bettor could bet every single team balanced properly and expect only 6.45% loss. This means that thanks to the Internet, when line shopping is used the odds in future betting are far better than ever before. Doing the math at Las Vegas Sportsbooks, I’d imagine the figure comes out between 30-45%, though that’s an educated guess.

Calculating Juice

To show an example of how to remove juice from a betting line, I’ll take a look at odds to win the NFC West at www.Bovada.lv. Their odds are a follows:

• Arizona Cardinals +800
• San Francisco 49ers +325
• Seattle Seahawks -110
• St.Louis Rams +300

The first step in calculating juice is to find out how often each team needs to win on average to break even at their current betting line. The math to calculate this is risk divided by return. To clarify, a $100 wager at +800 is $100 to win $800. The return is $900, as a winning bet returns back the $100 stake plus the $800 win for a $900 return. Therefore, to calculate the break even percentage on Cardinals +800, the math is 100/900=0.111 which is 11.1%. To avoid the math each time, Google search “Moneyline Converter” for a helpful tool.

Doing the math on each team, we end up with the following required break even percentages:

• Arizona Cardinals +800 = 11.1%
• San Francisco 49ers +325 = 23.5%
• Seattle Seahawks -110 = 52.4%
• St.Louis Rams +300 = 25%

Add these numbers together, and the total is 112%. Obviously, the true probabilities of each team winning cannot total more than 100%. The reason it does at the moment is because juice is still included in the betting lines. To remove the juice and get a no vig win probability, we divide each break even percentage by this 112% figure. The results are as follow.

• Arizona Cardinals 11.1%/112%=9.9%
• San Francisco 49ers 23.5%/112%=21.0%
• Seattle Seahawks 52.4%/112%=46.8%
• St.Louis Rams +300 = 25%/112%=22.3%

To double check that the juice is actually removed, we add these four figures together and now see the probabilities equal 100%. These new figures are called the no-vig win probabilities. If vig was equally distributed, these are each team’s true odds of winning the NFC West according to the betting market at www.Bovada.lv.

To change the percentages back into American odds format, again Google search “Moneyline Converter”, plug in the percentage and get:

• Arizona Cardinals +910
• San Francisco 49ers +376
• Seattle Seahawks +114
• St.Louis Rams +348

What we have here is each team’s no-vig moneyline. If the Bovada market was efficient, these moneylines represent each team’s fair price. If we find a line at any site which beats this price, we have a +EV bet.

Using No-Vig Probabilities to Find +EV Future Bets

Remember, the first step to removing juice is calculating the required break even percentages of each team. In our earlier example, the total of each team’s break even percentage was 112%. This figure is what Bookmakers refer to as the overround. The lower the overround the higher the chances a +EV bet exists. If the overround is less than 100%, not only does a +EV bet most certainly exist, an arbitrage opportunity also exists.

We should point out that when line shopping, the overround does not need to be under 100% for a bet to have value. 95% of the time the overrounds will be over 100%, yet through careful analysis it is still possible to find one of the betting options to be +EV perhaps 10-15% of the time. Let’s look at a current example actually available for betting at this moment.

I just went shopping at a dozen sites for odds to win the NFC west. After research, I found the best price on one of the teams on these three sets of betting lines.

Sports Bets Picks

Bookmaker

• ARIZONA CARDINALS +1700
• SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +225
• SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -175
• ST. LOUIS RAMS +360

Sportsbook:

• Arizona Cardinals +1200
• San Francisco 49ers +225
• Seattle Seahawks +120
• St Louis Rams +200

TheGreek:

• Arizona Cardinals +805
• Seattle Seahawks -135
• Rams or 49ers +145

Covering all 4 options at the best line, I come up with:

• ARIZONA CARDINALS +1700 (Bookmaker)
• Seattle Seahawks +120 (Sportsbook)
• Rams or 49ers +145 (TheGreek.com)

Note: The betting option at TheGreek covers both teams. If either team wins the division, the bet is a win; otherwise, it is a loss. Considering that I’m not required to risk stake twice, this is a better option than betting the teams individually (trust me I did the math).

What’s amazing about this market, we’ll now see. Let’s go ahead and do the same math we did before, converting each team’s odds to break even percentages. Doing this I get:

• ARIZONA CARDINALS = 5.55%
• Seattle Seahawks = 45.45%
• Rams or 49ers = 40.82%

Add these together and the overround is 91.82%. Here we have an arbitrage opportunity. We can bet all three of these lines in such a way that no matter which team wins we have a profit. To figure out the math of how much to bet on each team, Google search for an “Arbitrage Calculator”.

Let’s start with the bet with the lowest paying odds. If Sportsbook allows us to bet $500 on Seahawks +120, we could match this with $448.98 on the Ram/49ers +145 at TheGreek, and $61.11 on Cardinals +1700 at Bookmaker. The total outlay is $1,010.09. No matter which team wins, the return is $1,100, meaning $89.91 profit (8.9011% ROI) guaranteed.

Once again, two points will clarify. First, this is a true, real life example; at the exact moment I am writing this article, all three of these bets are available. Second, an arb possibility does not need to exist to find a +EV bet. If you pull lines from several betting sites and properly cap the market, you can gauge a team’s true win probability. Next, convert these probabilities into moneylines and bet any option that exists which is better than the moneyline that you calculated using the cumulative market price.

Final Thoughts:

Much of the strategy I’ve covered in this article relates to capping the market. As I mentioned earlier, conventional wisdom suggests future bets are often much worse than manual parlays, due to higher juice in future markets. This advice dates back to a time when bookmaker’s overround on future bets was much larger than it is today. In todays market, if you shopped just four sites: 5dimes, Sportsbook, Bookmaker (use bonus code THEGEEK) and TheGreek and then calculated the overround for any league championship using the best odds from each site, the average effective overround would be around 107%. The advice is still not entirely outdated. Many times manual parlays are still better. To get an idea of how this is so, I suggest reading this January 2007 article: Pinnacle Pulse Issue 66. Just remember that some of the material is outdated, but it is still a great read, and the concept and the math still apply.

Keep in mind, the absolute must have site for future betting is www.5dimes.eu. 5Dimes operates on the lowest margins, and 74% of the time when line shopping for the best price on a future, you’ll find it at 5Dimes. When adding Sportsbook to the mix with 5dimes, more than 9 times out of 10 you’re getting the best line available, period; and the times you don’t, the difference is often minor. I hope the information contained in this article was valuable to you, and I wish you and the teams you back the best of luck this betting season.

Other Advanced Sports Betting Strategy Articles:

Questions Received About Article:

QUESTIONS

I am trying to follow along and understand how you come up with a guarenteed 8.9% return on the NFC West Division winner? I’m following your instructions step by step and I have a few questions:

1. When you initially pick your starting odds, do you pick the best odds from any site or do you take odds from one site. You chose to pick odds from Bovada only.
2. Secondly, I don’t understand why you bet 448.98 Rams/49ers. Do you bet 448.98 on both teams? If not, what happens if the team you don’t pick wins?
3. How did you decide to bet the amounts you did? is there an equation?

ANSWERS

1. When you initially pick your starting odds, do you pick the best odds from any site or do you take odds from one site. You chose to pick odds from Bovada only.

In the first example I was simply showing how to remove vig from a line, at a single site. Later got into more about why line shopping was important. When calculating value of a future bet which I did in later example I’m going to use best odds for each team.

2. Secondly, I don’t understand why you bet 448.98 Rams/49ers. Do you bet 448.98 on both teams? If not, what happens if the team you don’t pick wins?

TheGreek was offering a single bet which included both teams. The bet was Rams OR 49ers win division +145. If either team wins the bet is a win, if neither team wins it is a loss.

3. How did you decide to bet the amounts you did? is there an equation?

In this particular example there was an arbitage. When line shopping all sites an opportunity existed where this could be bet in such a way $89.91 was won regardless of which team won.

• Rams win +$651.02 @ TheGreek. Lose -$61.11 @ Bookmaker, Lose -$500 @ Sportsbook. Total is +$89.91
• 49ers win +$651.02 @ TheGreek. Lose -$61.11 @ Bookmaker, Lose -$500 @ Sportsbook. Total is +$89.91
• Seahawks win +600 @ Sportsbook, Lose [email protected] TheGreek, Lose -61.11 @ Bookmaker. Total is +89.91
• Cardinals win $1038.87 @ Bookmaker, Lose [email protected] TheGreek, Lose -$500 @ Sportsbook Total is +$89.89 (17 to 1 odds, couldn’t get it exact).

Can google search from abritage calculator to figure this out. Yes could put it into an algebra equation but knowing there is so many arb caclulators on net its been years since I’d use an equation for this.

$89.91 guaranteed return on $1010.09 risked. $89.91/$1010.09 = 0.0890118702293855 89.0118702293855% (I probably should have rounded it to 8.9012% instead of 8.9011% but at that many decimals it essentially the same rounding or dropping (my spread sheet drops).

Futures betting is picking the outcome of a future event, such as betting the NBA, NFL, or MLB champion before the season begins, mid season, or during the postseason. But before you place a bet on the futures at all, consider using a Futures Calculator. By doing so, you’ll receive the complete implied probability of the future market. You’ll also identify the sportsbook’s house edge, which is usually very high when all outcomes are entered.

Futures Calculator

To use the Futures Calculator make sure you enter all values in the futures market, not just the ones you intend to bet. After calculating you will see the House Edge on the future market and can decide if that edge compared to your odds are going to be worth the long term investment of betting futures.

What Is A Futures Bet?

A futures bet is guessing a result that’s decided in the future. However, futures are specifically title events, not simply a game that’s days or weeks away. Examples of popular futures bets that take place in the US include:

• Winner of the NBA Finals
• Super Bowl Champions
• World Series Champions
• NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Champions

Futures odds are calculated based on the likelihood of a team or individual winning the title. As such, futures odds are constantly in flux, swinging wildly because of changing team members, injuries and trades, and a host of other factors.

Futures are normally presented at American sportsbooks with American odds (rather than decimal or fractional odds). The positive (+) number shows how much you’ll win with a $100 bet. The negative (-) shows how much you need to bet to win $100.

For example, the favorites to win the World Series at the start of the 2020 MLB season were the New York Yankees. If they were listed at +250, a $100 bet would pay out $250.

However, as the season progressed, the Los Angeles Dodgers became the favorite. By the time the postseason commenced, the futures odds on the Yankees winning it all increased to +1000 or longer while a bet on the Dodgers would be -250.

The goal of futures betting goes beyond making a correct guess. It’s identifying picks that make the potential reward worth the risk. That’s where the Futures Calculator comes into play.

What Is A Futures Calculator?

The Futures Calculator allows you to enter complete futures odds for multiple outcomes like NBA, NFL, and MLB future lines that contain every team. The idea is to give you the complete implied probability of the future market, not just the implied probability on a two-team event.

However, implied probability is the same in this context as any other: the odds of a payout without the sportsbook’s vig taken into account.

Generally, the futures calculator will indicate a very high sportsbook edge when all the outcomes are entered. The goal is to decide if that edge compared to your odds is going to be worth the long-term investment of betting futures.

What really sets the Futures Calculator apart from the other odds calculators is that you enter all values in the specific futures market, not just the lines you intend to bet. This will identify the complete implied probability, which is only determinable when you have every line added.

How To Use A Futures Calculator To Place A Sports Bet

As mentioned, you use a Futures Calculator by entering all values of the specific futures market. If you’re using it for odds before the start of the season, you’d be adding in the futures odds for every team. You then calculate the results to identify the implied probability for each pick as well as the total house edge.

Three Crucial Tips On Calculating Futures Bets

-110 Odds

It is important to note that -110 odds in a spread bet are very different from -110 odds in futures betting. Though the payout is the same, -110 odds in any more than two-way betting means that the implied probability is below 50%. That means that the sportsbook has an even bigger edge over you, and you need to take that into account.

Opportunity Cost

Another important factor to take into account is the investing principle of “opportunity cost.” In futures betting, your money will be tied up for an entire season. That means your sports betting budget will be limited until the futures come to fruition.

Of course, there’s a good chance that the team (or teams) chosen will be eliminated long before the title is decided. However, there’s also a good chance that the pick goes all the way to the championship game, tying up your investment all the while.

Would You Make More In Interest?

You should calculate the loss on interest you might have earned on that futures betting investment just sitting in a bank account. Though likely no more than 1%, that is another factor adjusting futures in the sportbook’s favor.

To make the decision to place a futures bet, you need to be sure that the payoff is exponentially more than the risk-reward of placing that same bet on a game that day or week.

Calculating Payouts From Positive Futures Odds

Positive odds (the number with the + symbol) is the payout potential for a $100 bet. For example, +200 would pay out $200 on a $100 bet, returning $300 to the bettor.

Calculating Payouts From Negative Futures Odds

Negative odds (the number with the – symbol) represents the dollar amount you need to bet to win $100. For example, -200 would pay out $100 on a $200 bet, again returning $300 to the bettor.

Looking for other calculators to use when sports betting? Check out:

What Is Line Movement?

Line movement is how the sportsbook’s odds shift depending on a variety of factors. If a key player gets injured, the futures odds will shift dramatically. If tons of bettors place a futures bet on a specific team, the sportsbook may change the odds in their favor. And the potential examples go on from there.

Not just with futures, line movement can help you determine the best possible moment to make a selection on a sports bet. But using the Futures Calculator on a regular basis can help you determine line movement, identifying better moments to bet as well as undervalued teams relative to the market.

Legal Online Sports Betting In The US

One of the most exciting prospects of legal online sports betting in the US is the ability to join several different sportsbooks from home. This gives bettors an easy way to compare the market and place the bets with the best odds.

Before, sports bettors were relegated to local bookies, illegal sites, or traveling to states where sports betting is legal. Now, there are more than a dozen states with legal online sports betting, and more are sure to join the party in the coming years.

Some of the states who recently legalized and launched online sports betting include Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Tennessee, and West Virginia.

The top three best online sports betting platforms in terms of consistently competitive odds and robust market depth are DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and BetMGM.

However, when it comes to utilizing the Futures Calculator and finding the best potential payout, you’ll want to join as many as possible. A more obscure sportsbook could have a jaw-dropping line that’s double the more mainstream options.

Combining Online Sports Betting With The Futures Calculator

Betting futures according to best practice is time-consuming. Thankfully, you need to be patient to place a futures bet in the first place, so taking things a step further shouldn’t be too much of a jump.

You don’t need to join an online sportsbook to see their odds. So hold off on joining until you’re ready to place a wager, as some introductory promotional offers expire after the first 24 hours or seven days of opening an account.

The first step is using the Futures Calculator for each online sportsbook available in the state. Record the results, then compare and contrast the sports betting sites and apps against each other before placing a bet.

The benefit of recording the results is the ability to track line movement. If you use the calculator every week (or whenever there’s trade movement or games played), you can both identify the best sportsbook to place the bet as well as the right time to place the bet.

FAQs – Using A Futures Calculator

Yes, it is legal to use a Futures Calculator. A Futures Calculator is not a form of cheating. You could use a Futures Calculator while physically present inside a sportsbook, and we recommend that you do so. Unless you can do all that math in your head, a Futures Calculator is a simple and effective way to determine implied probability and the house edge.

Serious sports bettors should use a Futures Calculator before placing a wager on a futures pick. This will help you determine the complete implied probability as well as the overall house edge. You can also use a Futures Calculator to track line movement as well as compare various sportsbooks to see where you should place your bet.

The easiest way to convert American odds to Fractional odds is by using an odds converter. There are many odds converters online, including here at Gaming Today.

Another way is to convert the odds manually. American odds in fractional form is 100/-number or +number/100. For example, -110 American odds would be 100/110, or 0.91/1.

Thanks to the internet, you can convert American odds to Decimal odds in seconds using the odds converter at Gaming Today. You can also convert the odds by hand. Simply divide the 100 by the negative number or divide the positive number by 100, then add 1. For example, +225 in American odds would be (225/100) + 1, or 3.25.

The fastest way to convert betting odds to implied probability is by utilizing the odds converter at Gaming Today. You can also do so by hand using the following equation: negative odds / (negative odds + 100) * 100.

Sports Betting Futures Odds

For example, the equation for -110 would be 110/(110+100) * 100 = 52.38%.

DraftKings Sportsbook. With the best quality app, excellent welcome bonuses and ongoing promotions, hyper-competitive, and robust market depth, the DraftKings Sportsbook reigns supreme as the best online sportsbook in the US. However, we highly recommend comparing every online sportsbook legal in your state before placing a bet to find the best available odds.